I Am Very Proud Of My Nerd-dom.

I Am Confident That We Will Meet Whatever Challenges The Future May Bring.

I And Others Were Mistaken Early On In Saying That The Subprime Crisis Would Be Contained. The Causal Relationship Between The Housing Problem And The Broad Financial System Was Very Complex And Difficult To Predict.

Economics Is A Very Difficult Subject. I've Compared It To Trying To Learn How To Repair A Car When The Engine Is Running.

There's No Denying That A Collapse In Stock Prices Today Would Pose Serious Macroeconomic Challenges For The United States. Consumer Spending Would Slow, And The U.s. Economy Would Become Less Of A Magnet For Foreign Investors. Economic Growth, Which In Any Case Has Recently Been At Unsustainable Levels, Would Decline Somewhat. History Proves, However, That A Smart Central Bank Can Protect The Economy And The Financial Sector From The Nastier Side Effects Of A Stock Market Collapse.

We’ve Never Had A Decline In House Prices On A Nationwide Basis. So, What I Think What Is More Likely Is That House Prices Will Slow, Maybe Stabilize, Might Slow Consumption Spending A Bit. I Don’t Think It’s Going To Drive The Economy Too Far From Its Full Employment Path, Though.